America Could Default Even if Debt Ceiling is Raised

Amplify’d from www.ritholtz.com

S & P: America Could Default Even if Debt Ceiling is Raised

As I noted yesterday, America could default even if the debt ceiling is raised.

One of the big, government-sponsored American rating agencies has just confirmed my post.

Specifically, Standard & Poor’s announced today:

[We're putting U.S. debt on] CreditWatch with negative implications … owing to the dynamics of the political debate on the debt ceiling, there is at least a one-in-two likelihood that we could lower the long-term rating on the U.S. within the next 90 days ….

The political debate about the U.S.’ fiscal stance and the related issue of the U.S. government debt ceiling has, in our view, only become more entangled.

We may lower the long-term rating on the U.S. by one or more notches into the ‘AA’ category in the next three months, if we conclude that Congress and the Administration have not achieved a credible solution to the rising U.S. government debt burden and are not likely to achieve one in the foreseeable future.

The Washington Post adds:

S&P managing director John Chambers said in an interview … even if the parties agree to raise the debt ceiling, it may not be enough to avert a downgrade. Chambers said the country must implement a plan to reduce the annual budget deficit by roughly $4 trillion over 10 years, which makes the debt manageable over the long term.

The White House and Congress have discussed a plan that big, but negotiations have more recently centered on a smaller deal, at $2 trillion or less.

“That could still lead to a downgrade,” Chambers said. Read more at www.ritholtz.com